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Probabilistic Planning of Minigrid with Renewables and Storage in Western Australia

Weixuan Gao
Dev Tayal
Dimitry Gorinevsky
IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting // Atlanta, GA | August 2019

This paper demonstrates analytical methodfor resource mix optimization. The case study is for anisolated large minigrid of Esperance in Western Australia.The method is based on discrete convolution of conditionalprobability distributions learned from data. It accounts fordemand interdependence with wind and solar generationand for grid storage. The capacity value of these resourcesis established by computing Loss of Load Probabilities(LOLP) for combined probability distributions.Index  Terms—Capacity value; variable generation re-sources; storage; reliability; planning; probabilistic analy-sis; analytical method.