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Probabilistic Modeling for Optimization of Resource Mix with Variable Generation and Storage

Distributed energy resources and power lines
Dimitry Gorinevsky
Weixuan Gao
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems - April 2020

Renewables, such as solar and wind generation, combined with storage are becoming a key part of modern grid. This paper develops probabilistic tools for analysis of grid reliability with such variable generation resources. The developed tools improve speed and accuracy of the reliability analysis compared to usual Monte Carlo methods. This is achieved by using an extension of well known convolution method applicable to interdependent variables. The interdependent distributions are obtained from historical data using Machine Learning of quantile models. The paper presents a novel approach to the analysis of reliability contribution of storage, related to Information Theory. The tool is demonstrated for several example scenarios for ISO-New England service area.